CCS Riley Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 i recently started playing fm again and decided to manage a vanarama national south team on fm 24 and in cups and playoffs im almost always the away team and it really hurts my already tragic financial situation because llm is like being a beggar in the sahara dessert (its my first time managing a lower league team) and cups can bring in actual money so im wondering if the games broken or its something to do with my stadium that i can fix or whatever? my stadium capacity = 6600 (900 seated) my stadium condition = poor Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Adi Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 Probably just bad luck. how many draws are you basing this off? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCS Riley Posted September 9 Author Share Posted September 9 10 hours ago, Uncle Adi said: Probably just bad luck. how many draws are you basing this off? About 5 or 6 seasons I recently got drawn as the home team for a 3 match streak as well but still mostly away matches Fm 24 seems to like drawing In massive streaks rather than mixing it up in a more realistic and fair way I like to know that I have a decent chance to be drawn as the home team then my hopes for getting money and reputation gains can remain present but instead I expect to be drawn away and once I see that I am I know I'm done for for the rest of the cup/playoffs even if I manage to win the first away match 😭 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
nms1987 Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 3 hours ago, CCS Riley said: About 5 or 6 seasons I recently got drawn as the home team for a 3 match streak as well but still mostly away matches Fm 24 seems to like drawing In massive streaks rather than mixing it up in a more realistic and fair way I like to know that I have a decent chance to be drawn as the home team then my hopes for getting money and reputation gains can remain present but instead I expect to be drawn away and once I see that I am I know I'm done for for the rest of the cup/playoffs even if I manage to win the first away match 😭 I understand its frustrating, and I'm sure real life Vanarama teams curse their luck if they draw away a few times in a row. That money matters. But there is no reason to think a stretch like that is at all unusual. Look at this sequence of coin flips, imagine if heads was away draws. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
XaW Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 11 hours ago, CCS Riley said: About 5 or 6 seasons I recently got drawn as the home team for a 3 match streak as well but still mostly away matches Fm 24 seems to like drawing In massive streaks rather than mixing it up in a more realistic and fair way I like to know that I have a decent chance to be drawn as the home team then my hopes for getting money and reputation gains can remain present but instead I expect to be drawn away and once I see that I am I know I'm done for for the rest of the cup/playoffs even if I manage to win the first away match 😭 The problem here is, as @nms1987 hints to, is that we humans are really good at spotting patterns, but also horrible at judging probability. To continue with he coinflip example. There is a difference of asking what the probability of flipping a coin 10 times and getting heads every time, and flipping a coin that has landed on heads already 9 times. The probability of flipping a heads 10 times in a row is about 0.0977%, so very unlikely. The probability of flipping a single head after already flipping 9 heads is still ~50%. This is something that many have a trouble understanding. Just because something has happened a lot, if the next chance is not directly connected to the previous, the odds doesn't improve. This is called the gambler's fallacy. It's usually explained as a person gambling on roulette, and after the ball has landed on black 9 times in a row, the gambler goes all in on red, because "now it HAS to land on red"... The point is that even if you have been drawn away 9 times in a row, the chance of getting a home game next is still only 50%, the odds for home or away never changes for an individual draw. 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Adi Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 1 hour ago, XaW said: The problem here is, as @nms1987 hints to, is that we humans are really good at spotting patterns, but also horrible at judging probability. To continue with he coinflip example. There is a difference of asking what the probability of flipping a coin 10 times and getting heads every time, and flipping a coin that has landed on heads already 9 times. The probability of flipping a heads 10 times in a row is about 0.0977%, so very unlikely. The probability of flipping a single head after already flipping 9 heads is still ~50%. This is something that many have a trouble understanding. Just because something has happened a lot, if the next chance is not directly connected to the previous, the odds doesn't improve. This is called the gambler's fallacy. It's usually explained as a person gambling on roulette, and after the ball has landed on black 9 times in a row, the gambler goes all in on red, because "now it HAS to land on red"... The point is that even if you have been drawn away 9 times in a row, the chance of getting a home game next is still only 50%, the odds for home or away never changes for an individual draw. All things being equal, tossing a coin will even out to 50% heads and 50% tails eventually. The problem is that the time period needed to ensure this result is infinity. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
XaW Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 52 minutes ago, Uncle Adi said: All things being equal, tossing a coin will even out to 50% heads and 50% tails eventually. The problem is that the time period needed to ensure this result is infinity. Yes, and that's the issue with how we understand probability. The law of small numbers comes to mind. 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonthedon26 Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 3 hours ago, XaW said: The problem here is, as @nms1987 hints to, is that we humans are really good at spotting patterns, but also horrible at judging probability. To continue with he coinflip example. There is a difference of asking what the probability of flipping a coin 10 times and getting heads every time, and flipping a coin that has landed on heads already 9 times. The probability of flipping a heads 10 times in a row is about 0.0977%, so very unlikely. The probability of flipping a single head after already flipping 9 heads is still ~50%. This is something that many have a trouble understanding. Just because something has happened a lot, if the next chance is not directly connected to the previous, the odds doesn't improve. This is called the gambler's fallacy. It's usually explained as a person gambling on roulette, and after the ball has landed on black 9 times in a row, the gambler goes all in on red, because "now it HAS to land on red"... The point is that even if you have been drawn away 9 times in a row, the chance of getting a home game next is still only 50%, the odds for home or away never changes for an individual draw. That's why you always bet on 2nd 12 and not red/black haha Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now