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xG rubbish . . .


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We were playing away to the league leaders in the Championship, who are Wolverhampton Wanderers. They spend £1.3 million a week on wages, we (Sheff Wed) spend £375K a week. We also have our first choice goalkeeper and centre-forward out injured. We win 2-1 and have 8 shots on target to their 1. Yet xG tells me we didn't put out a good performance!

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Not sure why you would expect the xG summary to take into account the opposition's league position, wage budget or which players you were missing any more the day of the week and whether the kit is your favourite colour

All it takes into account is that the opposition chances created were better than yours. That's why it says "according to xG" and not "according to stockwellpete's opinion"

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28 minutes ago, enigmatic said:

Not sure why you would expect the xG summary to take into account the opposition's league position, wage budget or which players you were missing any more the day of the week and whether the kit is your favourite colour

All it takes into account is that the opposition chances created were better than yours. That's why it says "according to xG" and not "according to stockwellpete's opinion"

Actually, I don't expect it to do any of those things because I understand that it is an analytical tool to measure just what has happened during a match and nothing else. But it is very irritating and a rather limited tool nonetheless. I would like to be able to switch it off, as I don't find it helpful in the slightest, but I don't know if that is possible. 

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48 minutes ago, stockwellpete said:

Actually, I don't expect it to do any of those things because I understand that it is an analytical tool to measure just what has happened during a match and nothing else. But it is very irritating and a rather limited tool nonetheless. I would like to be able to switch it off, as I don't find it helpful in the slightest, but I don't know if that is possible. 

Just ignore it then 🤷🏼‍♂️ 

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1 hour ago, stockwellpete said:

Actually, I don't expect it to do any of those things because I understand that it is an analytical tool to measure just what has happened during a match and nothing else. But it is very irritating and a rather limited tool nonetheless. I would like to be able to switch it off, as I don't find it helpful in the slightest, but I don't know if that is possible. 

xG is a metric for how many scoring chances the teams created. It does not take into account quality of anything other than the scoring chance. So if you didn't create much and the other team did, then it was disappointing from an xG viewpoint.

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17 minutes ago, XaW said:

xG is a metric for how many scoring chances the teams created. It does not take into account quality of anything other than the scoring chance. So if you didn't create much and the other team did, then it was disappointing from an xG viewpoint.

So, in my example in the first post, where I had 8 shots on target to their 1, I would have thought that was pretty good myself, whoever I was playing or where. Yet it was deemed to be "not a good performance". That Japanese girl pop group called xG make more sense than these Opta people!

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1 minute ago, stockwellpete said:

So, in my example in the first post, where I had 8 shots on target to their 1, I would have thought that was pretty good myself, whoever I was playing or where. Yet it was deemed to be "not a good performance". That Japanese girl pop group called xG make more sense than these Opta people!

8 shots from the halfway line vs a meter out from an empty net, what is the best chance? Now, I'm exaggerating here, but that's what xG is there for. If you don't like it, then don't use it, most others will look at it as one metric in a bigger setting. It's statistics, nothing more, nothing less.

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Another xG "incident". Playing as St Albans City (Vanarama South) and we were drawn away to Oxford United in the First Round Proper of the FA Cup. We ended up winning 4-3! Their xG score was 3.69 and they had 30 shots at goal with 17 on target. The game text said we had "a very worrying performance". Presumably, xG doesn't make this sort of value judgement? It is just the game comparing the two scores, is it? Our xG score was just over 1.30, if I recall correctly.

 

Somebody must have had a higher xG opposition team score and still have won. Any takers?  

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