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Southgate: Episode IV - A New Hope


Rob1981
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12 minutes ago, Rob1981 said:
  • Changing the culture around the England side
  • Getting rid of the cliques and the hierarchy
  • Going in with a squad of 26 that genuinely want to play for each other, instead of a first eleven and a load of miserable subs that knew they weren't going to feature
  • Staying loyal to players that have played a lot together and developed a good understanding, even if they aren't in brilliant club form

He clearly isn't the best at in-game management.  But it's a seven game tournament, not a 38-game campaigns.  So if he only ticks 8 out of 10 boxes, he probably ticks the eight that MIGHT win you a World Cup if you get the rub of the green.  He doesn't tick the eight that would win you a Premier League title.  Would I want him at my club?  Absolutely not.  But his skillset suits international management very well.

Don't forget, we've had a great many good tacticians that have got a lot of the other stuff wrong and have ended up doing worse.  Some other manager probably isn't going to be able to saunter in for 2026 and immediately make us world champions, I hate to break it to you all.

To be fair, beating the top teams is actually less important in winning a league than it is in winning a tournament. In the league, being consistent is much more important (look at City this year for example - didn't beat Arsenal or Liverpool but still finished above both of them).

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13 minutes ago, Haguey said:

There is a small part of me that wants the next NT manager to be a flavour of the month who fails miserably so I can be smug, but mostly I'd rather win a trophy.

I’m 50/50 :D 

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Genuine question: are there many other international managers that have reached semi finals and finals but still been ridiculed as hopeless underachievers? :D

Domenech maybe, but only after two group stage exits and randomly proposing to his missus on live TV.

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3 minutes ago, Rob1981 said:

Genuine question: are there many other international managers that have reached semi finals and finals but still been ridiculed as hopeless underachievers? :D

Domenech maybe, but only after two group stage exits and randomly proposing to his missus on live TV.

Southgate has reached one final

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13 minutes ago, Rob1981 said:

Genuine question: are there many other international managers that have reached semi finals and finals but still been ridiculed as hopeless underachievers? :D

Domenech maybe, but only after two group stage exits and randomly proposing to his missus on live TV.

Dalić is basically a Southgate who had the luck of having arguably the strongest midfield in the world that didn't need any tactical expertise.
His approach is also all about family atmosphere, good relatioship with players and trusting the veterans who are not doing well for their clubs.

Fernando Santos won a tournament in the most sh*thouse fashion possible.
Went through as 4th best third placed team, 4 points with 0 GD.
Croatia was a way better team in first knockout game, they won in 119th minute after we hit the post and they had a counter.
Then they beat Poland on penalties in QF.
Wales in semis because Belgium bottled it.
Somehow won that game against France without Cristiano, which was arguably their only good performance. They were horrible for 5 games, started playing in semi-final.

2018 loss to Urugay in first knockout round.
2021 loss to Belgium in first knockout round.
2022 beat Switzerland, lost to Morocco.

Really underwhelming considering their beyond stacked squad.
He's definitely a Southgate level manager.
His career since he left Portugal shows how much of a fraud he was.

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, GunmaN1905 said:

Dalić is basically a Southgate ... His approach is also all about family atmosphere, good relatioship with players and trusting the veterans who are not doing well for their clubs.

Wait, what?  So you're telling me someone who approaches international management in a similar way to Gareth Southgate has ALSO reached a semi final and a final?  :D

Well I'm shocked.

Edited by Rob1981
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6 minutes ago, skybluedave said:

I think one thing Southgate has going for him and why once dust is settled he will.be remembered more positively by fans then negatively is that he hasn't had that proper sh*t the bed tournament (yet...)

I agree.

The thing is that often times a coach can take you only so far before you need to make a change to get to the next level.
Kind of how City were winning titles with both Mancini and Pellegrini, but to do something more and establish themsleves in CL, they got Pep.

While most of this England team is fairly young, key players aren't.
Kane probably has just '26 WC left if we talk being close to his peak performance and you don't replace a striker like that, as we've seen around Europe with the striker drought.
Stones is also 30 with concerning injury history and won't be easy to replace.

Wasting their last tournament in '26 on Southgate would be bad.

Just now, Rob1981 said:

Wait, what?  So you're telling me someone who approaches international management in a similar way to Gareth Southgate has ALSO reached a semi final and a final?  :D

Well I'm shocked.

You left out the bit about midfield.

As good as Bellingham is and will be, you don't have #6/#8 midfielders Croatia had.
NT football is all about building around midfield. If you don't have it, you need a proper tactician.

Edited by GunmaN1905
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1 minute ago, GunmaN1905 said:

The thing is that often times a coach can take you only so far before you need to make a change to get to the next level.

Reminds me of the argument that gave us Capello. 

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Southgate has gone full 2016 Hodgson at this stage and the squad appears thin skinned as well if Hazza's comments are anything to go by today. 

If we turn in a similar performance against Slovenia on Tuesday night regardless of the result I am going to watch Southgate's England in the last 16 the way God intended - goal alerts via an app.

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6 minutes ago, Lucas said:

Reminds me of the argument that gave us Capello. 

But you weren't having good results back then. :D
You missed '08 EURO and you hadn't won a knockout game since '02.
Capello took over a team in shambles.

Now you're a team that's expected to contend.
It depends on how this end, but I'd keep Southgate only if he beats an actual top team.

Read: France, Portugal, Germany, Spain.

Getting to the semi-final over third placed team and then beating Switzerland/Croatia would be more of the same.
He needs to prove he can beat a top team that's a legit contender and playing well.

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I don't think it needs to be a proven top manager with a great cv. We've seen in international football that isn't always the be all and end all. 

I genuinely don't have a clue who it will be. Southgate is going after this 100%. His contract runs to like November or something odd so I guess that allows us not to rush and Southgate can oversee Nations League stuff if really needed. Maybe we wait and see who's interested in summer and if not happy, wait and see who becomes available by end of year. 

I think Potter wants it and that's why he's turned down clubs this summer. All he's gotta do is wait 2 weeks and he'll know if it's a go or not. Or maybe the FA are aiming for Pep... :brock:

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Just now, skybluedave said:

I don't think it needs to be a proven top manager with a great cv.

Well indeed, otherwise Southgate wouldn't have got the job himself.

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3 minutes ago, GunmaN1905 said:

Now you're a team that's expected to contend.
It depends on how this end, but I'd keep Southgate only if he beats an actual top team.

Read: France, Portugal, Germany, Spain.

Wait, you’d keep him? :D 

Make your mind up.

If we beat France in the semis and then lose to Portugal or someone you wouldn’t credit Southgate for a second. You would dine out on it as the biggest bottling since our last biggest bottling. Plus the France team we managed to beat would have become the worst France side in history by then.

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3 minutes ago, GunmaN1905 said:

But you weren't having good results back then. :D
You missed '08 EURO and you hadn't won a knockout game since '02.
Capello took over a team in shambles.

Now you're a team that's expected to contend.
It depends on how this end, but I'd keep Southgate only if he beats an actual top team.

Read: France, Portugal, Germany, Spain.

Getting to the semi-final over third placed team and then beating Switzerland/Croatia would be more of the same.
He needs to prove he can beat a top team that's a legit contender and playing well.

Tbf we were in a much much worse shambles (results and player pool) when Southgate took over compared to when Capello took over. Yeah we didn't qualify in 08 but that was an anomaly more then anything. 

The reason we are now expected to do well is down alot to Southgate. So you have the credit him for that. If we'd had Hodgson or Capello type tournaments these past 6 years under Southgate we wouldn't be one of the favourites 

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Just now, Rob1981 said:

Wait, you’d keep him? :D 

He needs to make the next step, it's his fourth tournament. Previous three had the same pattern of losing against the first opposition that was on England's level.

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If we beat France in the semis and then lose to Portugal or someone you wouldn’t credit Southgate for a second. You would dine out on it as the biggest bottling since our last biggest bottling. Plus the France team we managed to beat would have become the worst France side in history by then.

My gimmick antics have nothing to do with my serious talk.

It's just that it's sometimes hard to tell which is which. :D

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I've no idea who'll be next manager, pickings feel a bit slim. Howe not a bad shout but as above not sure he'd leave Newcastle at this stage. Dyche I'd be very very meh about. 

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I weirdly think Dyche would do quite well but it wouldn't be very exciting

The best choices are probably Howe and Cooper but they aren't gettable right now. Think it's too soon for Potter or anyone else

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2 minutes ago, Rob1981 said:

So, keep Southgate then? I can’t keep track.

Do what Germany did, bring in a failed club manager who is part of the establishment with an interest in developing young players....

B/R Football on X: "Frank Lampard was all smiles in his first win as  Everton manager 😄 https://t.co/tGpg2nrdxh" / X

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4 minutes ago, arenaross said:

If you don't need any tactical nous at the top level then the only choice is big Stevie G I'm afraid. 

Lampard and Stevie to job-share with the newspapers always speculating whether they can deliver together for a good 8 years of QF appearances.

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What a story arc that would be. Gerrard and Lampard in as co-managers and then we finally win something.

That’s a Netflix series waiting to happen.

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5 minutes ago, Rob1981 said:

What a story arc that would be. Gerrard and Lampard in as co-managers and then we finally win something.

That’s a Netflix series waiting to happen.

Would you do a photoshopped split avatar or would you just get a 00's pic of them together? These... these are the questions.

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1 hour ago, Haguey said:

Do what Germany did, bring in a failed club manager who is part of the establishment with an interest in developing young players....

B/R Football on X: "Frank Lampard was all smiles in his first win as  Everton manager 😄 https://t.co/tGpg2nrdxh" / X

I don't know why but I have a weird feeling Lampard would do quite well. Based on absolutely nothing mind 

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1 minute ago, skybluedave said:

I don't know why but I have a weird feeling Lampard would do quite well. Based on absolutely nothing mind 

Yeah same :D

Sorry I mean "No. But seriously I feel the same"

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Lampard is definitely the most Southgate-like option. I can well imagine arguing with gunman during Euro 2028, claiming that him nailing the right culture in the camp is enough to make up for his tactical shortcomings.

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I'm a Portuguese guy that somehow survived the dark Fernando Santos days. I thank him for his service, and winning it in 2016 was great (though it can feel weirdly empty and meaningless to win an international trophy after dreaming of it all your life - it suddenly dawns on you that it's just a ****ing football match), but I don't regret one bit replacing him with Martinez. Even if we spectacularly crash out against France in the quarters or something, which is what I expect to happen. It is better to have fun watching your team and have a 10% chance of winning a competition, than to feel absolutely miserable watching every single match just so you can have a 15% chance.

It's about time you guys do something similar. I actually didn't think you guys were that bad in previous tournaments, but something's feeling really off about this one.

Edited by noikeee
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10 hours ago, The_jagster said:

Get Gareth Barry as assistant and Lampard and Gerrard can focus on their strengths and work together.

And get Scholes in just to have him on the left side of the dugout too?

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6 hours ago, noikeee said:

It is better to have fun watching your team and have a 10% chance of winning a competition, than to feel absolutely miserable watching every single match just so you can have a 15% chance.

I wouldn’t disagree with this.

People remember England’s 1998 and 2004 teams with a lot more affection than those of 2006 and 2010. Because they were involved in some great games and played good football. Even if they still went out in the first knockout round.

But Southgate has a higher win rate and a higher goals-per-game than his predecessors. The idea that all his previous tournaments have been 2016-Portugal-style grinds simply isn’t true.

2020 - Smashed Ukraine 4-0, created about 30 chances against Denmark. Plus beating Germany of course. And although that was a game of few chances it was literally AMAZING to see us controlling possession against a top side in a way we hadn’t managed for about 25 years.

2022 - beat Iran 6-2, beat Wales 3-0, beat Senegal 3-0, took the QF to France with more shots, more corners, more bloody xG… in a game that really could have gone either way

People have very selective memories if they think every Southgate tournament has been “absolutely miserable”.

When you’re old enough to remember being shut out by Trinidad and Tobago for over 80 minutes, and to remember the “nice to hear your own fans booing you”, and to remember keeping the ball in the corner at 1-0 against Slovenia only to lose top spot in the group on goals scored because of a late goal in the other game… it’s absolutely baffling.

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30 minutes ago, Rob1981 said:

I wouldn’t disagree with this.

People remember England’s 1998 and 2004 teams with a lot more affection than those of 2006 and 2010. Because they were involved in some great games and played good football. Even if they still went out in the first knockout round.

But Southgate has a higher win rate and a higher goals-per-game than his predecessors. The idea that all his previous tournaments have been 2016-Portugal-style grinds simply isn’t true.

2020 - Smashed Ukraine 4-0, created about 30 chances against Denmark. Plus beating Germany of course. And although that was a game of few chances it was literally AMAZING to see us controlling possession against a top side in a way we hadn’t managed for about 25 years.

2022 - beat Iran 6-2, beat Wales 3-0, beat Senegal 3-0, took the QF to France with more shots, more corners, more bloody xG… in a game that really could have gone either way

People have very selective memories if they think every Southgate tournament has been “absolutely miserable”.

When you’re old enough to remember being shut out by Trinidad and Tobago for over 80 minutes, and to remember the “nice to hear your own fans booing you”, and to remember keeping the ball in the corner at 1-0 against Slovenia only to lose top spot in the group on goals scored because of a late goal in the other game… it’s absolutely baffling.

My issue isn't really to do with how unexciting games under Southgate are (although some are absolute dross) it's the fact that he seems insistent on closing up shop once a lead is taken. It's what caused the downfall and exit of the tournament's under Southgate. I am not suggesting we win them all had we played more attacking football. But we certainly could have gone at Croatia and Italy to put us in full control. Instead we sat back, invited pressure and allowed them to get back into it.

We have the players to keep pushing at opponents, which Southgate seems reluctant to do so. And the performances against Serbia and Denmark have shown absolute zero change in his mantra. Which is the real frustration here and why so many of us feel that he isn't learning from what caused us to not win previous tournaments. We clearly cannot sustain pressure from bigger teams, especially in the latter stages of games to keep clean sheets. So why do we keep setting up this way.

Again, I am not advocating for full out attack mode to win games by 4/5 goals. But when we have scored and the team is potentially there for the taking, why don't we try for that 2 goal lead.

The fact we have such attacking talent and IMO lack in defensive qualities, we should be doing our best to just outscore the opponent, rather than sit back on a one goal lead.

The previous tournaments under Southgate have not been 'absolutely miserable' but they have certainly been frustrating with how we went out of them (exception of the France game)

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Posted (edited)

So what you're saying is... the Italy exit was frustrating but the France exit wasn't?

Like we'd evolved our style of play maybe... and over time we have become much more willing to attack teams :D 

We have clearly approached some big games very differently to others.  Become much more attacking than we were before... and we saw the benefit of this in WC2022 and more recently in the qualifiers against Italy.  So peddling this narrative that we have always stuck rigidly to pragmatic, boring football... it just isn't reality. 

It's far too early to predict what will happen this year.. yet the "same old Southgate!" stuff is already being written even though we are in a good place at the top of the group.

Should at least give it a few more days before everyone sticks the knives in :D

As for the 2020 final.  Of course it was extremely frustrating... but I actually don't think enough is made of the fact that Italy had had an extra day's rest. 

I thought I would be saving this stat for later in the tournament, but I might as well bring it out now: If you look at the last few World Cups, Euros, Women's World Cups, Women's Euros... the team that played their semi final 24 hours earlier has won ELEVEN consecutive tournaments.  I'm not sure why this isn't talked about more... it potentially creates unfairness in the format as soon as you want to put both semi finals in a prime time TV slot on consecutive days.  People were frustrated that we didn't go and attack Italy but there were a few players that night that didn't really turn up and were out of running by the second half... we would have struggled to play any other way for any sustained period of time.

fwiw I actually still think we would have won that 2020 final with Henderson playing in midfield.  More experience, someone to settle everyone and do the basics to keep hold of the ball when the game started to get away from us.  But Henderson hadn't started the earlier games because of coming back from injury.  And that's what I criticised Southgate for at the time... not being ruthless enough and being too "nice" to the Rice/Phillips combo that had got us to the final.  Team selection was a bigger issue for me than the fact that we didn't spend the entire second half raining shots in when several players were knackered.  AND we were still a penalty kick away from winning ffs, people talk like Italy pumped us 4-1 or something.

Edited by Rob1981
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We did go for a 2nd against Croatia - Harry Kane scores a tap in from about 2 bloody yards out and we'd have been well in control. Its exactly the sort of tiny margin that these sort of knockout games come down to.

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