Games 25 and 26: Switzerland vs Germany live from the Frankfurt Arena BBC2 8pm AND Scotland vs Hungary live from the Stuttgart Arena BBC1 8pm

[Haguey]

3 minutes ago, The_jagster said:

GD of minus 4 with 2 points must be a pretty low chance of getting through? Any other team with two points is unlikely to lose by 4+ so you are relying on 3rd and 4th drawing with each other and losing their other two matches in two groups to progress?

Two groups could still have 3rd place teams on one point I think

Not massively unlikely either, both groups 3rd and 4th teams play the two teams in 1st and 2nd

Edited June 23 by Haguey

[Rob1981]

12 minutes ago, skybluedave said:

Surely 2 points wouldn't have been enough with Scotlands GD?

11 minutes ago, The_jagster said:

GD of minus 4 with 2 points must be a pretty low chance of getting through?

A few ways it could have happened for them.  But most likely I think they would probably have needed Spain/Italy to both avoid defeat, and then England and Denmark both to win by a couple of goals.  Or only one of those two things happens but Portugal/Turkey both also avoid defeat.  Not impossible, but probably not likely enough for Scotland to risk sitting on the draw tonight and hoping for the best.

Edited June 23 by Rob1981

[Wavelberry]

For me it just appears that Scotland approached the early qualifying games with a '**** it and see' mentality which saw them basically qualify before they realised and since then it's been over-thought to the point where they are scared to do anything and their play has reflected this.

[titchuk]

1 minute ago, The_jagster said:

GD of minus 4 with 2 points must be a pretty low chance of getting through? Any other team with two points is unlikely to lose by 4+ so you are relying on 3rd and 4th drawing with each other and losing their other two matches in two groups to progress?

Basically if Albania and Croatia lose to Spain and Italy respectively (not unlikely) AND Georgia and Czech Republic lose to Portugal and Turkey (also not unlikely?) 2 points is enough to go through this tournament, which might still happen to Slovenia.

I think Hungary have a good chance of going through.

[Rob1981]

6 minutes ago, Astafjevs said:

Based on previous events they'll do well to go through with a -3 GD. Need some help from other groups 

I think this year the likelihood of third place teams finishing with only 1-2 points is higher.

• Group C third place finishes on 2 points if England beat Slovenia
• Group B third place finishes on 2 points if Croatia don't beat Italy and Albania don't beat Spain
• Group F third place finishes on 2 points if Czech Republic don't beat Turkey and Georgia don't beat Portugal

So getting two of those three scenarios doesn't seem that unlikely.  Which gives Hungary a good chance of going through with three points regardless of their -3 GD.  Some of the modelling I found this morning gave Hungary a 70%+ chance of progression, even with just 1-0 win.

[Astafjevs]

6 minutes ago, skybluedave said:

Surely 2 points wouldn't have been enough with Scotlands GD?

I don't think 2 points would have been enough even with a +10 GD. You're going to need 3 to go through 90% of the time. 

You've already got two groups where 3rd place is guaranteed to get 3 points minimum. 

[The_jagster]

3 minutes ago, titchuk said:

Basically if Albania and Croatia lose to Spain and Italy respectively (not unlikely) AND Georgia and Czech Republic lose to Portugal and Turkey (also not unlikely?) 2 points is enough to go through this tournament, which might still happen to Slovenia.

I think Hungary have a good chance of going through.

Croatia Italy and especially Czechia Turkey are way too much of a toss up to rely on that imo, when Italy and Turkey will probably be happy with draws

Anyway I will leave this now as the permutations chat earlier was being scrolled past because it's not my thing

Edited June 23 by The_jagster

[Gizmo7]

 

[Gizmo7]

Latest on Varga is that he is stable and conscious in hospital 

[Rob1981]

7 minutes ago, titchuk said:

Basically if Albania and Croatia lose to Spain and Italy respectively (not unlikely) AND Georgia and Czech Republic lose to Portugal and Turkey (also not unlikely?)

You only need one of those two groups to go for you if England beat Slovenia

If England beat Slovenia and Denmark beat Serbia:
England 7, Denmark 5, Slovenia 2, Serbia 1

If England beat Slovenia and Denmark-Serbia draw:
England 7, Denmark 3, Serbia and Slovenia both on 2

If England beat Slovenia and Serbia beat Denmark:
England 7, Serbia 4, Denmark and Slovenia both on 2

Although the third place team can change, it doesn't matter what the Denmark-Serbia results is as long as England win... the third place team can only finish on two points.

Edited June 23 by Rob1981

[The_jagster]

Why is anyone on TV saying "at least look at it" when clearly they did and dismissed it immediately?

[Haguey]

Oh man I feel bad for Angus Gunn

[Lucas]

Well, it went as much as I expected it to in the end  

I couldn't believe the best Scotland players were subbed off, even if knackered. The players who came on were nowhere near the quality needed. 

Thought the talk before the game from Moyes on why there's not as many good Scottish players now was an interesting question. Or is it more a case that previous Scottish generations were overrated, or Europe has simply caught up with them? 

I'd love to see Scotland at more tournaments in future. Wonder if its something the Scottish FA / SPL can look into trying to improve. 

Wonder if Clarke stays on now? Might be a time for fresh ideas, I thought they were too cautious at times. 

[kopsy101]

20 minutes ago, JD nawrat said:

Our form just fell off a cliff in the last year. Not sure what happened to be honest, but after we qualified I think we've won a single game? Gibraltar? I could be wrong, terrible memory. 

It's like we just got found out. 

That was dreadful again tonight. Grateful to be at the Euros but that ending has me gutted. 

[enigmatic]

3 minutes ago, The_jagster said:

Why is anyone on TV saying "at least look at it" when clearly they did and dismissed it immediately?

Probably looked at considerably more angles than the TV, and maybe started the slomo from where Clarke did a weird little hop away from the ball and into the defender rather than the bit where the legs made contact too...

[Rick87]

Glad that Varga is ok.

Poor game other than the last 10-15 minutes, plenty of heart but no quality.

[kopsy101]

I totally forgot about the penalty incident, does anybody think it wasn't a pen?

[Obi-Wan Kenobi]

1 minute ago, kopsy101 said:

I totally forgot about the penalty incident, does anybody think it wasn't a pen?

Not a pen for me, mainly thanks due to Armstrong's wretched first touch that takes the ball away from him. If he had a better hold of it initially, it have been a nailed on pen.

[Lucas]

34 minutes ago, Obi-Wan Kenobi said:

Yup, utterly wasted the 1st half with a stall so defensive, you'd have thought we'd qualified already and just happy to draw.

He was called out on his team selection when asked about it a day before the game, saying he wouldn't make big changes and something to the effect of it's the best way to start  

I'd like to see Moyes get the gig for Scotland if they are changing managers. 

[Lucas]

4 minutes ago, kopsy101 said:

I totally forgot about the penalty incident, does anybody think it wasn't a pen?

I don't think it was, on the replay you can see the way he's got his arm on the defender he is looking for it after a poor touch. 

[Tikka Mezzala]

Silver lining is I can avoid awkward family dinners now that Scotland won't be relying on Czechia losing to Turkey. 

[Rob1981]

 

Another quick update from this guy.  Gives Hungary about a 70% chance of going through, based on which combinations of groups are most likely to provide the third place teams.  And Hungary are most likely to play Portugal if they get through.  Or they could possibly play E1 still.  But now only around 1% chance of the 3rd place team from Group A being matched with Spain.

[eenie]

1 minute ago, Tikka Mezzala said:

Silver lining is I can avoid awkward family dinners now that Scotland won't be relying on Czechia losing to Turkey. 

And at least one of John McGinn's cousins will be happy

[kopsy101]

3 minutes ago, Obi-Wan Kenobi said:

Not a pen for me, mainly thanks due to Armstrong's wretched first touch that takes the ball away from him. If he had a better hold of it initially, it have been a nailed on pen.

First touch or not, he still goes through Armstrong? Without getting near the ball.

1 minute ago, Lucas said:

I don't think it was, on the replay you can see the way he's got his arm on the defender he is looking for it after a poor touch. 

His arm is on the defender but only grips once he's been tackled, presumably as a natural reaction to falling. 

[Pukey]

41 minutes ago, Haguey said:

Interesting but unsurprising breakdown on the Beeb, its the refs fault and 'why didn't VAR check it' from a professional football manager who must surely know everything is checked

 

29 minutes ago, The_jagster said:

Why is anyone on TV saying "at least look at it" when clearly they did and dismissed it immediately?

VAR has enough issues without pundits talking absolutely nonsense like the above. Winds me up no end when they say "why was it not checked?!?!?!" when it obviously was. Logan even gave the pundits a chance to play devil's advocate but they didn't, just kept zooming in on the slow mo replay showing the contact and refused to discuss that Armstrong's movement initiates the contact.

10 minutes ago, kopsy101 said:

First touch or not, he still goes through Armstrong? Without getting near the ball.

His arm is on the defender but only grips once he's been tackled, presumably as a natural reaction to falling. 

Armstrong literally jumps in front of him, initiating the contact. The slow mo makes it look more like one, but in real time the contact from the defender comes barely any time after Armstrong goes across. Shearer was arguing he's shielding the ball as he has a right to do, and sure he does but that's why there's contact. It's completely fair that the ref waves it away, and VAR should never be overturning it and indeed it doesn't.

[TM]

was Armstrong offside? the angle's not great but I feel there was the possiblity of an offside which is why it didn't go through the VAR penalty check or it's gone through the check as most things do and they've decided they didn't have to call over the ref

can't really say much about the game, seen the film too many times at this point and 0 shots in 100 minutes is abysmal, don't care about the level of football (Hanley's shot didn't count as it was offside apparently)? players tried their best but if there's no creativity and no chances, you aren't going to score goals.

Edited June 23 by TM

[skybluedave]

38 minutes ago, Haguey said:

Oh man I feel bad for Angus Gunn

Just be grateful he hasn't read this forum over this tournament

[Lucas]

1 minute ago, TM said:

players tried their best but if there's no creativity and no chances, you aren't going to score goals.

I think there is some creativity in that team, they are a better side I believe than they were set up as. They were just set up far too defensively leaving Che Adams on his own and nothing to work with. 

I can't believe a team with Gilmour, McGinn, Robertson and McTominay in there (won't count Tierney as he's always injured), can't make more of it than it ended up being. It's only down to the negativity of the set up is the reason. Very much like watching England, imo.  

[Pukey]

5 minutes ago, TM said:

was Armstrong offside? the angle's not great but I feel there was the possiblity of an offside which is why it didn't go through the VAR penalty check or it's gone through the check as most things do and they've decided they didn't have to call over the ref

can't really say much about the game, seen the film too many times at this point and 0 shots in 100 minutes is abysmal, don't care about the level of football (Hanley's shot didn't count as it was offside apparently)? players tried their best but if there's no creativity and no chances, you aren't going to score goals.

Best screenshot I could get

Hungary defender's left foot is playing him on to me, but obviously angles can be deceiving. I think they check incidents first rather than offside? Can't actually remember. Either way, VAR's almost always going to stick with the on field decision in those kinds of incidents.

[kopsy101]

1 minute ago, Pukey said:

Armstrong literally jumps in front of him, initiating the contact. The slow mo makes it look more like one, but in real time the contact from the defender comes barely any time after Armstrong goes across. Shearer was arguing he's shielding the ball as he has a right to do, and sure he does but that's why there's contact. It's completely fair that the ref waves it away, and VAR should never be overturning it and indeed it doesn't.

As Shearer said, he's got a right to shield the ball to protect it. At the point of contact, he's not moving towards the defender and it's his ball. We've all played football, if somebody shields the ball from me and I take him down like that, I'm apologizing for being clumsy. 

The point of shielding is that your body part is in the way of the ball. Like, if you're saying the defender only knees him because his legs in the way - Then that's the argument I would also use  That's the defenders responsibility to not knee him as he's running off. 

 

[craigcwwe]

1 hour ago, Heartwork said:

Well it was all or nothing for Scotland there. 2 points was never gonna be enough to go through so they had to go for it.

Shame for Scotland their manager didn't let the leash off the players until the last 10 minutes in a must win game. 

[StevehFC]

Currently sitting in Stuttgart train station waiting for my train back to Koln typing this. When Hungary scored at the end. I just broke down in my seat crying for a few minutes. Being a Hibs fan I’m used to dissappointment. But tonight felt different. Worst I’ve felt after a game of football for a long time. I generally thought we would have made history and the fans have been let down by manager who’s too stubborn with this tactics.

But on the positive sides of things, I demand we have every Euro’s in Germany going forward. 

[themadsheep2001]

 

 

[TalkSport]

8 hours ago, Pukey said:

Best screenshot I could get

Hungary defender's left foot is playing him on to me, but obviously angles can be deceiving. I think they check incidents first rather than offside? Can't actually remember. Either way, VAR's almost always going to stick with the on field decision in those kinds of incidents.

Depends what the angle is, but wouldn’t be surprised if the upper body is offside by some distance, when you consider Lukaku was mm off.

[Goldy]

Hope Orsato does not ref another game at these Euros, probably the worst reffing performance I have seen for quite some time, the only consistency was his poor decision making.

[themadsheep2001]

Armstrong might well have been offside too, but he jumps across the player to initiate contact, rather than being impeded. Dont really get the BBC controversy around it, and its actually daft from him to not try and shoot. Thought Steve Clarke's views on the ref's nationality were a bit grim too tbh. 

EDIT: just noticed the BBC have edited out the worst bit of his comments, just going to skip over the xenophobia eh?

[Obi-Wan Kenobi]

17 minutes ago, themadsheep2001 said:

EDIT: just noticed the BBC have edited out the worst bit of his comments, just going to skip over the xenophobia eh?

Don't think we need to ask that question, given the BBC's track record of providing xenophobes a platform to preach from on so many occasions.

[oche balboa]

Scotland didn't show enough ambition, Or were simply not good enough. Hungary wasn't much better and obviously the goal was a killer for Scotland. Glad that Barnabas Varga injury appears to not be life threatening, But it was very sickening. 

 

 

[kopsy101]

28 minutes ago, themadsheep2001 said:

Thought Steve Clarke's views on the ref's nationality were a bit grim too tbh. 

EDIT: just noticed the BBC have edited out the worst bit of his comments, just going to skip over the xenophobia eh?

Saw that, wasn't at all impressed. Infact, I think it was disgusting. 

Bizarre question though, wouldn't Clarke speak to the 4th official if anybody? Perhaps the question was asked with the ref's nationality/languages in mind. 

[themadsheep2001]

29 minutes ago, Obi-Wan Kenobi said:

Don't think we need to ask that question, given the BBC's track record of providing xenophobes a platform to preach from on so many occasions.

Sad but true. Didnt think even the sporting pages would let it slide though 

[GunmaN1905]

1 hour ago, Goldy said:

Hope Orsato does not ref another game at these Euros, probably the worst reffing performance I have seen for quite some time, the only consistency was his poor decision making.

Welcome to the club.

He's retiring, so you better hope Italy goes far, I have a bad feeling he'll get the final. Or semi-final at least.

Corrupted scumbag that's been ruining games for 20 years.

 

As for Clarke's comments, hillarious that a Scottish manager would question an Argentinian's football knowledge.

Edited June 24 by GunmaN1905

[Obi-Wan Kenobi]

31 minutes ago, oche balboa said:

Scotland didn't show enough ambition, Or were simply not good enough.

Far more the first, but that also feeds into the latter coming through as a result. When you struggle to muster even 5 shots on target over 3 games, and your two goals scored are for all intents own goals, you end up like we did, lucky to even get 1 point. We were so cautious in a "must-win" game, I think Clarke must go out with a life jacket when using the hose in his garden! Then giving our top club scorer a total of 25 of 270 minutes playing time was also a hugely bad decision.

I accept we had a lot of injuries at the back ahead of the tournament, but that just makes the ultra defensive play all the more baffling to me. We had both Tierney/Robertson at the back, and a midfield who can be very solid on the ball, yet we didn't do anything to take advantage of the one major strength we had.

[aiston]

Should probably keep the Xenophobic thoughts to yourself really

 

[kopsy101]

It's the "Why's he here" for me, why the f*** is Ralston here first m8

[eenie]

Aye that was rotten chat from Clarke. Embarrassing stuff.

[Coulthard's Jaw]

 

[themadsheep2001]

1 hour ago, kopsy101 said:

Saw that, wasn't at all impressed. Infact, I think it was disgusting. 

Bizarre question though, wouldn't Clarke speak to the 4th official if anybody? Perhaps the question was asked with the ref's nationality/languages in mind. 

Steve was already aggrieved and the question was very sympathetic/bias, dont think they expected the horrendous answer, but the entire thing was all poor unlucky/plucky Scotland. Very soft reporting 

[Pukey]

Even if you're being very, very charitable and say he's referring to there being a language barrier, the "why is he here" comes across really terrible. Just pretty woeful stuff from Clarke.

[eenie]

7 minutes ago, Pukey said:

Even if you're being very, very charitable and say he's referring to there being a language barrier, the "why is he here" comes across really terrible. Just pretty woeful stuff from Clarke.

Yeah, really dire chat from Clarke. I get that he was frustrated but there's no excuse for that nonsense.

[Obi-Wan Kenobi]

2 hours ago, Coulthard's Jaw said:

 

We win the partying, singing, and fan cup treble again, yay.