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Games 27 & 28: Albania vs Spain live from the Düsseldorf Arena BBC2 8pm AND Croatia vs Italy live from the Leipzig Stadium BBC1 8pm

Coulthard's Jaw
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What will be the result?  

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  1. 1. What will be the result

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  • Poll closed on 24/06/24 at 18:59

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Coulthard's Jaw

Coulthard's Jaw

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md3_albesp.jpeg?imwidth=2048

Possible line-ups

Albania: Strakosha; Balliu, Ismajli, Gjimshiti, Mitaj; Ramadani, Abrashi, Asllani, Bajrami, Laci; Broja
Suspended: Daku
Misses next match if booked: Broja, Gjasula, Hoxha, Hysaj

Spain: Raya; Navas, Vivian, Laporte, Grimaldo; Merino, Zubimendi, Olmo; Torres, Joselu, Oyarzabal
Suspended: Rodri
Misses next match if booked: Carvajal, Le Normand

Despite already being through to the last 16 and likely making several changes, the Opta supercomputer still thinks Spain will make it three wins from three. La Roja win this one in 73.2% of its 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Gabby Logan presents coverage with analysis from Ashley Williams, Ellen White and Jose Fonte, and commentary by Guy Mowbray

euro_24_-_2_players_h2h_-_facebook_20240

Possible line-ups

Croatia: Livaković; Stanišić, Šutalo, Erlić, Gvardiol; Modrić, Kovačić; Pašalić, Sučić, Kramarić; Budimir
Misses next match if booked: Ivušić

Italy: Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Calafiori, Dimarco; Cristante, Jorginho; Barella, Pellegrini, Chiesa; Retegui
Misses next match if booked: Calafiori, Cristante, Donnarumma, Pellegrini

Italy are made favourites by the Opta supercomputer, winning this game in 50.6% of scenarios.

Gary Lineker presents, with analysis from Micah Richards, Wayne Rooney and Alan Shearer, and commentary by Jonathan Pearce

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Spain - have qualified and have won the group

Italy - Seems unlikely they will finish 4th but a loss does open up that possibility. Equally 3 points would probably be fine for 3rd place qualification. A win and they qualify. A draw will be fine as well.

Albania - A win against the odds and they are through. A draw or loss and it's good night.

Croatia - A win, they have to win.

-------

Have this World Cup classic between Croatia and Italy from 2002

 

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GunmaN1905

GunmaN1905

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Just now, Coulthard's Jaw said:

Have this World Cup classic between Croatia and Italy from 2002

This is beyond hillarious. :lol:

As Croatian commentator said after the 2-1 goal, Panucci, you can be mad all you want. :D

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One of the most ridiculous streaks between NTs, I'd say. I don't think any other big nation has such a bad h2h against a smaller one. Not a single win.

2012 group stage was a good game, Pirlo free-kick and Mandžukić equalizer.
Qualifiers 2016 were boring.

That first win in '94 is one of the most iconic games for Croatia. As it was the third official game after independance and the first big match since first two games were Estonia and Lithuania.
Šuker scored 2 in Palermo.

As for tomorrow's match, I've got no clue what's clown Dalić up to.
It seems that Brozović is done and Sučić should start.
There were even some reports of Vida being in CB contention, but luckily he got injured.

Spalletti on the other side looks like he lost faith in himself and the team.
Dimarco is apparently injured and Darmian should start on the left side, which is a ridiculous decision.
But he's also apparently thinking about dropping almost every offense oriented player and playing some ridiculous 4141 catenaccio. Awful stuff.

I expect a sh*tfest and a boring draw, with Spain taking care of Albania.
I genuinely hope Croatia doesn't qualify for knockout phase with 2 points. Either get the win or go home.

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Rob1981

Rob1981

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Not ruling out Albania still having some say in this.

Spain know the job is done... might rest a few players... might shift down a gear to save themselves for the KO games... Albania can nick in ahead of the loser of the Croatia-Italy game.  Or they could even draw with Spain and still have a shot at being the "surprise third place team with only two points"... as long as Croatia don't win.

Albania OR Croatia going through with a draw is still possible if the England and Portugal groups play out the right way.

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mrw072

mrw072

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Can't see anything other than a comfrtable win for Spain today.  For me, they're the best team i've seen so far in the tournament.  

I think Croatia will beat Italy - I think that Croatia probably have more about them than they're showing, and I don't particularly rate the Italian team too highly.  Maybe 2-1 Croatia.

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The_jagster

The_jagster

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Italy looked better against Albania than Croatia did but while I expect Croatia won't attack too much it could go either way.

Another two teams without much up front tbh

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kpain16

kpain16

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The 2018 Croatia would win comfortably, 2022 Croatia would win by a judge's decision, current Croatia looks like the wheels have fallen off. So I have absolutely no clue about this one. Dalić will have to pray a little harder than usual it seems, because his old guard that saved his ass many times is way past it.

 

Btw it looks like Dalić had enough of strikers and is back to his preferred 4-6-0 formation.

image.thumb.png.fe7e13061b11a4e723a76a27730f6402.png

Edited by kpain16
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CFuller

CFuller

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Albania don't have much of a chance against Spain, I'm afraid. Even if the Spaniards rotate, I still think they'll win big.

Croatia vs Italy seems too close to call. Their frontlines don't look too inspiring. Think it'll be a 1-1 draw, with the Italians going through and Dad's Army sweating on other results.

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GunmaN1905

GunmaN1905

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image.png.81bd04eabf94ebf2fce5e127f0fecaa4.pngimage.png.3f95075aed1535160c86c92d2e2eb192.png

Idk which lineup is worse. :lol:
Dalić went back to Spain defense and midfield, we know how that ended.
But on top of that, he added two more midfielders, so this is something like starving man's Del Bosque Spain.

For the sake of every Italy fan, I hope this is 352 from Spalletti.
Darmian at RCB, Di Lorenzo and Dimarco as wingbacks, three midfielders and Raspadori-Retegui up front.
Because if it's actually a four man defense setup like this, it's going to be hillariously bad.
Two left-footed CBs and right-footed LB, the next great tactical evolution. :D

Spain with fully rotated team, as expected.

Edited by GunmaN1905
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GunmaN1905

GunmaN1905

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4 minutes ago, Astafjevs said:

Dropping Chiesa for a defender is bizarre, but otherwise nothing wrong with the lineup

I'd say dropping Chiesa for Raspadori is bizarre, Chiesa can play that trequartista role just fine.

Adding Darmian instead of Frattesi helps both wingbacks and all three midfielders have an easier time going forward.
I'm taking Dimarco's offensive output over Frattesi's every time.

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The Amazing Dale Watkins

The Amazing Dale Watkins

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7 hours ago, kpain16 said:

The 2018 Croatia would win comfortably, 2022 Croatia would win by a judge's decision, current Croatia looks like the wheels have fallen off. So I have absolutely no clue about this one. Dalić will have to pray a little harder than usual it seems, because his old guard that saved his ass many times is way past it.

 

Btw it looks like Dalić had enough of strikers and is back to his preferred 4-6-0 formation.

image.thumb.png.fe7e13061b11a4e723a76a27730f6402.png

Why do you say Kramaric is not a striker? 

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GunmaN1905

GunmaN1905

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3 minutes ago, The Amazing Dale Watkins said:

Why do you say Kramaric is not a striker? 

Because he's not a traditional #9 and instead of being primarily a goalscorer from traditional striker positions, he likes to float around and drop deeper.
Which is obviously unnecessary in a team full of midfield playmakers.

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kpain16

kpain16

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4 minutes ago, The Amazing Dale Watkins said:

Why do you say Kramaric is not a striker? 

He doesn't play as a striker for years and even said he dislikes playing it in a 1 striker formation. As Gunman says he's a free role offensive player without a proper position on the pitch.

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TM

TM

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Just now, CFuller said:

Watching Croatia vs Italy. Jonathan Pearce's first live commentary at these Euros. Can't wait for the history lessons or the raging at VAR.

the France goal at World Cup 2014 is still a legendary moment :D

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av3ry

av3ry

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Are England through as a best third team at worst already? Can't finish below Serbia can they because of the head to head?

Watching Croatia Italy. Not sure what to expect.

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CFuller

CFuller

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Just now, av3ry said:

Are England through as a best third team at worst already? Can't finish below Serbia can they because of the head to head?

Watching Croatia Italy. Not sure what to expect.

England will be guaranteed to qualify if Albania don't win.

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Rob1981

Rob1981

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1 minute ago, av3ry said:

Are England through as a best third team at worst already? Can't finish below Serbia can they because of the head to head?

Not quite. There could still be five third place teams finishing on four points as it stands.

England will be through by FT tonight if Albania don’t win.

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Rob1981

Rob1981

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5 minutes ago, Bootador said:

I hate this set up, literally can't decide what game to watch because nearly everyone qualifies anyway

Wait until someone scores, then stay with the game where the next goal can change the group standings.

If Croatia score, stay with Croatia v Italy because an Italy equaliser can bump Croatia back down to two points. If Italy score, Croatia would need two goals to have a realistic chance. So flip to Albania v Spain where one Albania goal could lift them into a best third place spot.

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Rob1981

Rob1981

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Bootador said:

What do I do now then, is it Italy to see who finishes 2nd?

If Spain get another you can probably forget that game altogether and Albania will be out of it.

So stick with Croatia v Italy. Croatia win and they finish runners up, Croatia don’t win and Italy finish runners up and Croatia probably go out. But Albania going a couple of goals behind would take some of the jeopardy out of the Italy-Croatia game as well really. For Italy anyway. Italy could then lose by a couple of goals and would still almost certainly qualify from third. 

Edited by Rob1981
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