Games 33 & 34: Ukraine vs Belgium live from the Stuttgart Arena BBC1 5pm AND Slovakia vs Romania live from the Frankfurt Arena BBC2 5pm

[Coulthard's Jaw]

Possible line-ups

Ukraine: Trubin; Tymchyk, Zabarnyi, Svatok, Matviyenko, Mykolenko; Yarmolenko, Shaparenko, Brazhko, Mudryk; Yaremchuk
Misses next match if booked: Konoplia, Yaremchuk

Belgium: Casteels; Castagne, Faes, Vertonghen, Theate; Tielemans, Onana, De Bruyne; Doku, Lukaku, Bakayoko
Suspended: Lukébakio
Misses next match if booked: Mangala, Tielemans

Belgium are backed by the Opta supercomputer to triumph in this decisive Group E meeting, winning 54.3% of 10,000 pre-match simulations. Ukraine secure a shock victory in just 22.2% of sims, while the draw – which could still send both sides through – was forecast more often in 23.4% of data-led sims.

Commentary by Steve Wilson and Martin Keown.

Possible line-ups

Slovakia: Dúbravka; Pekarík, Vavro, Škriniar, Hancko; Kucka, Lobotka, Duda; Schranz, Boženík, Haraslín
Misses next match if booked: Schranz

Romania: Niță; Rațiu, Burcă, Drăgușin, Bancu; R Marin, M Marin, Stanciu; Man, Draguş, Coman
Misses next match if booked: Bancu, R Marin, M Marin

The Opta supercomputer thinks Romania will emerge with the win in this game, modelling victory for them in 42.2% of pre-match predictions. Slovakia win the tie in 31.9% of sims, while the draw comes in at a 25.9% chance.

What. A. Group. The permutations here are mind blowing  Enjoy, savour it.

Edited Wednesday at 08:38 by Coulthard's Jaw

[arenaross]

Rob. Tell us which match to watch please. 

[Rob1981]

The permutations   Oh my.  It feels like my whole life has been building up to this moment.

I think this is right:

It looks horrendous, because all four teams can still finish in all four positions.

But I think it's:

• Any team can qualify with a win
• Any team can qualify with a draw, AS LONG AS there is an outright winner in the other game.
• If BOTH games are draws, then everyone is on four points.  So Ukraine finish bottom on goal difference and everyone else qualifies.
• A loser here COULD still qualify from 3rd place if NEITHER game is drawn.  But in a scenario where they lose, in order to stay 3rd and not drop to 4th then each team would need a specific winner in the other game.  This is because they could each end up tied on three points with one of two teams, and they would have a better h2h record against one but a worse h2h record against the other.
  • If Slovakia lose, they would need Ukraine to win the other game to stay 3rd
  • If Romania lose, they would need Belgium to win the other game to stay 3rd
  • If Belgium lose, they would need Slovakia to win the other game to stay 3rd
  • If Ukraine lose, they would need Romania to win the other game to stay 3rd

But remember... anybody losing and finishing 3rd on three points also needs to survive the head-to-head comparison with other third place teams.  Unless one of tonight's games is an absolute bloodbath, then teams can probably equal Hungary's GD of -3 and stay ahead of them in the rankings because Hungary picked up nine yellow cards.  But if someone ends on -4 GD or worse, then they would rank below Hungary; therefore COULD still be eliminated if either Georgia or Czech Republic win later tonight.  So Ukraine can only afford to lose by one goal.  Slovenia could lose by three goals.  Romania or Begium could lose by four goals.  But of course, that's assuming they still get the specific result they need from the list of bullet points above.  Otherwise they can't afford to lose at all.

See?  It couldn't be simpler

Edited Wednesday at 15:37 by Rob1981

[Rob1981]

I would definitely watch Belgium v Ukraine. 

The other two can play out a 0-0 draw and both qualify, so Ukraine are the only team that may need to try to win.  By virtue of having the worst GD at the start of play.

Edited Wednesday at 12:18 by Rob1981

[TM]

probably 16 Lukaku offside goals in the Belgium/Ukraine game

this is a group where I can see me switching the TV channels a few times which is what you want to see in MD3

[Constantine]

Can't be worse than yesterday, right??

[CFuller]

My prediction... Belgium will be going home, and Lukaku will break the record for most offside goals at a major tournament.

Ukraine 2-1 Belgium, Slovakia 1-1 Romania.

[EnterUsernameHere]

How is Trossard back in after his last cameo appearance?

[GunmaN1905]

[CFuller]

Since when has José Fonte been a hipster? Half-expecting him to see him at Glastonbury over the weekend. 

[Haguey]

A draw and a Ukraine win would be excellent banter here, but I think the Belgians will do it.

[av3ry]

Both games to be a draw and some poor team goes out on 4 points.

[av3ry]

English ref. So there will be var shenanigans.

[Rob1981]

Just now, av3ry said:

Both games to be a draw and some poor team goes out on 4 points.

[Bunkerossian]

Mon Ukraine. Loving the courage to totally switch the formation.

[Muttley84]

Hai Romania! 😁

[GunmaN1905]

I'd love if two yellow teams qualified.

What's the point of Belgium using away kit? Dark red would have better contrast.

[Bliss Seeker]

This Belgium kit is horrid. They're really leaning into this tin tin theme aren't they? 

[GunmaN1905]

Here we go.

[Darren Moores Mum]

Shorts are crap but I like the Belgian shirt.

[Darius1998]

First Lukaku chance and it's scuffed.  

[Haguey]

So many selfish useless long rangers this tournament, its like they've seen a few fly in now everyone is at it

[GunmaN1905]

Just now, Haguey said:

So many selfish useless long rangers this tournament, its like they've seen a few fly in now everyone is at it

Can't score if you don't shoot.

Throwback to good times with everyone taking long shots.

[CFuller]

We all laugh at Lukaku, but Dovbyk's not been firing at all.

[GunmaN1905]

Slovakia takes the lead, bettors in the mud!

[DJ]

Weak defending Romania

[Rob1981]

SLOVAKIA HAVE SCORED

Didn't they read the script?

[Rob1981]

1. SLOVAKIA
2. BELGIUM
3. UKRAINE
---------------
4. ROMANIA

[Rob1981]

End the games now

Slovakia 1st and Ukraine 3rd... even Belgium go into the other half of the draw.

[Haguey]

ffs

[Barry Cartman]

Great blocking edge of the box by the ref 

[av3ry]

Oh number 11 took too long to pass. Should be 1-0 Ukraine

[CFuller]

So, as things stand, Slovakia could face Slovenia?

I had them down as the two weakest teams before the tournament started. 

[CFuller]

But if Belgium do survive in 3rd place, they'll probably have to play on (the) Sunday(s).

[av3ry]

Ronaldinho scores that de Bruyne free kick 

[Rob1981]

2 minutes ago, CFuller said:

So, as things stand, Slovakia could face Slovenia?

Yeah, that would be the matchup if Hungary get through at the expense of the Group F third place team.  And England play Netherlands.

But if these two games stay like this AND Czechs/Georgia win tonight, then F3 goes through instead of A3.  In which case, Slovakia would play Netherlands, and England would play Ukraine.

[GunmaN1905]

This is a scandalous decision, tbh.

Contact outside the box, Hagi dvies in and it's a penalty.

Ridiculous.

[Freakiie]

Yeah, no clue what the VAR was thinking there, the main contact was clearly outside the box.

[DJ]

VAR must have felt generous. Pen for Romania, 1-1

[GunmaN1905]

Just now, Freakiie said:

Yeah, no clue what the VAR was thinking there, the main contact was clearly outside the box.

Siebert at the whistle, was to be expected.

Bad call and then even worse from VAR room not to overturn it.

[Rob1981]

1. ROMANIA
2. BELGIUM
3. SLOVAKIA 
----------------
4. UKRAINE

[DJ]

Blind Taylor misses a dirty foul, what else is new

Edited Wednesday at 16:42 by DJ

[Freakiie]

2 minutes ago, GunmaN1905 said:

Siebert at the whistle, was to be expected.

Bad call and then even worse from VAR room not to overturn it.

But the VAR did overturn it. Ref initially gave a freekick.

[Muttley84]

They showed some replays with a second contact exactly on the line. I dont think it was, but I'll take it.

[GunmaN1905]

Just now, Freakiie said:

But the VAR did overturn it. Ref initially gave a freekick.

Wait did he? It's on my second screen and I muted the audio.

Even more ridiculous, then.

[The_jagster]

44 minutes ago, Rob1981 said:

And also produced the Drawing Of Lots to decide 2nd and 3rd

[CFuller]

49 minutes ago, Rob1981 said:

 

4 minutes ago, The_jagster said:

And also produced the Drawing Of Lots to decide 2nd and 3rd

I was too young for USA '94. Would've loved to have seen this unfold. 

[TalkSport]

Bottom half of the draw for KOs shaping up to be jokes.

Imagine a run to the final of Slovakia, Switzerland and Austria  

[GunmaN1905]

3 minutes ago, TalkSport said:

Bottom half of the draw for KOs shaping up to be jokes.

Imagine a run to the final of Slovakia, Switzerland and Austria  

With Rangnick against Cristiano in the final.

[EdBed]

4 minutes ago, TalkSport said:

Bottom half of the draw for KOs shaping up to be jokes.

Imagine a run to the final of Slovakia, Switzerland and Austria  

And then losing to the first "good" team we come up against.