Penalties success rate

[sdx15]

Guys, what's your overall penalty success rate in the game? After being frustrated with some recent missess in my save, I decided to count the conversion rate of all my penalty takers that are still at the club (most are) and it's just below 50 per cent: 18/37. My main taker started well with 6/9, but over the seasons ended up with 9/19. I didn't frantically change my takers after a single miss, but other players did get their chance eventually or when the starters were resting so another taker, who should excell at pens as he has all the good stats (including the hidden ones) is on a 2/6. The best rate is 75% (3/4), but that's from a third choice striker so I can't really experiment. Exclude those three players and the rest are at 4/8, again 50%. This is all much lower than the average 0.8 conversion.

Looking at other clubs and leagues, it seems everything else is fine with the rate even going above the real-life average. So, is there something wrong with my players or the game?

[XaW]

9/10 in 42 matches so far this season.

As for the players they are 5/5 and 4/5 respectively.

Seems right to me.

But remember that the state of mind of the plyer also has impact, not just how good they are at pens. High determination and a few hidden attributes (can perhaps be spotted in reports) like pressure, consistency, and important matches at least can impact the players. So if you have a nervous wreck trying to take pens, then that's a bad idea. Try to note down what their body language is when the pens are taken to see if this could be an issue.

[sdx15]

It shouldn't be their state of mind. The guy that has 9/19 is ambitious, media-friendly, fairly consistent and enjoys big matches. A sneak-peek at his hidden attributes say his pressure is 12. Not great, but don't think it influences him that much to miss random pens in the league.

The other guy is consistent, fairly professional, level-headed, enjoys big mathes and his pressure is 14. At some point he missed three pens in a row so that's why he's overlooked.

[kingjericho]

IRL penalty conversion rate is 85%, it's usually what I have in my saves. Unless the penalty taker is really bad.

[vrig]

In penalty shootouts the success rate has been significantly higher than penalties won during a match. And if a player has missed their last penalty, they'll probably miss the next one.

All anecdotal, but that's been my experience on FM24. 

[FrazT]

I have checked and from my last 3 seasons, the success rate is just over 82%- a bit higher for my number 1 taker though at 86%

[wazzaflow10]

The xG in the game is ~.79 I think. Since it's a self contained (i.e. trained against itself) you should be scoring at about that rate. If you're converting 50% your player has an issue. There's about a 1% chance of missing 3 in a row if I've done the math right and consider no other factors (.2^3). Hardly impossible, especially if he doesn't score these very often.

I find it more predictive to look at the text during the penalty. The game seems to hate when VAR or the referee gives a "cheap" penalty. I forget exactly what the wording is but if the commentary states "harsh" it seems like teams miss more often. Completely anecdotal though.

[sdx15]

20 hours ago, wazzaflow10 said:

There's about a 1% chance of missing 3 in a row if I've done the math right and consider no other factors (.2^3). Hardly impossible, especially if he doesn't score these very often.

Yeah, rare, but possible.

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What's the math for 1/6, though?
 

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20 hours ago, wazzaflow10 said:

I find it more predictive to look at the text during the penalty. The game seems to hate when VAR or the referee gives a "cheap" penalty. I forget exactly what the wording is but if the commentary states "harsh" it seems like teams miss more often. Completely anecdotal though.

That's interesting. Most of the pens get checked by VAR so I'll pay attention to the commentary. Thanks for the replies, guys.

[wazzaflow10]

3 hours ago, sdx15 said:

What's the math for 1/6, though?

you're asking what the probability of scoring exactly 1 goal in 6 attempts assuming a success rate of .8?

Binomial distribution calculator says its about .001 or .1% chance. I think you need a new penalty taker...

[busngabb]

This hasn't annoyed me anywhere as much on FM24 as it had previous versions. You can probably search the history of my posts on here about this topic. In all the years of playing Football Manager, I think I've genuinely only won a handful of penalty shootouts. It got to the point with recent versions where I'd just slump in the chair and assume it as a defeat.

[GIMN]

  

A small sample, but 20/27 in the league over 3 seasons.  74%.  Outside of Vierinha in the first season, I haven't really prioritised having a "good" penalty taker, so no surprises it's a little below average.

[vikeologist]

On threads like this, people say 'I think I've lost most penalty shootouts' but it's pretty easy to filter out the leagues from your results and see how you've done.

I've won 10 out of 18 (in my 18 season or so save so far).

I thought it would be much higher than that because I

a) put my top taker(s) on specialist training.

b) Have 90 mins + pens if necessary in preseason matches.

c) 'Play' most cup matches, and focus on having my best takers on the pitch when it counts, even if they're tired and having a bad match.

Interestingly though, I've lost 4 of my last 5, which is just the naturally streaky nature of these kind of things. 

It's maybe also because I really don't have many good takers in my team at the moment. I don't tend to pay attention to that attribute when buying players.

Anyway my point is that perceptions are very unreliable.