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Southgate: Episode IV - A New Hope


Rob1981
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14 minutes ago, EdBed said:

England win on Sunday and Gareth gets offered a new contract on better terms.  How much money is he on now? Two years on a massive wedge is something that should not be taken lightly for somebody who's occupation is famouly insecure.

 

His is basically Roy Hodgson though, so after a spell at a "big" club where it is clear that the CL is out of reach at about Christmas he loses his job, and then goes to a bottom to mid-table side that is happy to achieve 45 points from now until eternity.

 

Edit: oh... and the amount of talent that England will be taking to the WC, I can imagine that it's a golden time to be the England manager.

Think he's on £5m a year (25% more than any other manager in the Euros fwiw)

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23 minutes ago, InigoPatinkin said:

Tbf given his record and length of service he should be on more money than anyone but probably Deschamps. 

I think it's fair to say that his record and tenure do mean he should be on good money, but I don't think he should be earning more than everyone else, and probably not more than a few managers. Should he earn more than Deschamps, Nagelsmann or Spalletti? I'd argue not.

and if record and tenure are the key points here, Deschamps has actually won something and has a solid 4 years on Southgate. There's no "probably" about Deschamps :D

Edited by JD nawrat
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7 hours ago, davehanson said:

For me the obvious choice is Klopp if England could persuade him. I know he wants a break from football, but England only have the 6 nations leagues games this year, then world cup qualifying doesn't begin until March 2025 - i think. Even if they were to appoint an interim manager for the nations league games. 

Klopp knows the players, everyone that has every played for him genuinely seems to like him and he has that mindset to get the very best out of his players.

 

I just don't see Klopp happening. Not really sure why he'd want to manage England and I think him being German is a pretty big obstacle to get past for most fans. There's also the issue it could sour his legacy with (some) Liverpool fans too.

Pep makes sense if his family are settled in England and he fancies international management as it doesn't seem likely he'd manage Spain IMO.

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10 hours ago, PaulHartman71 said:

 

I just don't see Klopp happening. Not really sure why he'd want to manage England and I think him being German is a pretty big obstacle to get past for most fans. There's also the issue it could sour his legacy with (some) Liverpool fans too.

Pep makes sense if his family are settled in England and he fancies international management as it doesn't seem likely he'd manage Spain IMO.

Well, he seems to love working in England. There was no real reason for either Capello or Sven to take the England job (other than the fat pay cheque) - they had no connection at all to English football. Being German would be different, but the fact he worked in this country for 8 years(?) and was pretty much loved by the press and a lot of fans (unless they were direct rivals), I don't think most England fans would have an issue with it. 

And, to be frank if Liverpool fans think him going to manage a national team makes him somehow less of a manager in their eyes then they are pathetic. It's not like he would be going to manage Man Utd or Everton - or even City. 

I doubt it will happen anyway - but if Southgate leaves and the FA didn't even have contact to see if he would be interested then that would be quite disappointing. 

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20 minutes ago, Barry Cartman said:

Lets remember the last time we met Spain in an international final 

 

We're not counting the Women's World Cup then, when Spain beat us? :D

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Quote

 

In international and club finals, though, Spanish teams take some stopping - with 22 successes in a row since 2001.

The national team have won their past three major tournament finals, while the last nine Champions League finals and 10 Europa League finals involving a Spanish side and a foreign team have all ended in La Liga victory.

 

Just seen that stat on BBC :eek:

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gareth, for his own sake, should leave no matter what happens

it's an impossible task to match the english fans expectations

english fans were complaining about spain being boring when they were the greatest national team ever probably

so even if he gets us playing well, no doubt there will be something new to criticise :D  

he's done a great job, now take yourself out of the firing line

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1 minute ago, iamjerome said:

gareth, for his own sake, should leave no matter what happens

it's an impossible task to match the english fans expectations

english fans were complaining about spain being boring when they were the greatest national team ever probably

so even if he gets us playing well, no doubt there will be something new to criticise :D  

he's done a great job, now take yourself out of the firing line

Spain were boring, being undisputedly the best team in the world doesn't change that. I'm sure I wouldn't have cared as much if I was Spanish though.

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Spain were absolutely boring. The difference was the way they did it. It was the peak of controlled boring, the winning result was almost decided before kick off. If there is a right way to be boring, it was Spain Not a comparison to England at all. 

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Feels like there is a bit of revisionism to Spain because yeah that 2012 run was maybe a bit too controlled to be thrilling, but I seem to remember 2008 being fun and quite 'wow'?

Just looked it up and they were the top scorers, put 7 past Russia over 2 games, last minute winners in others, beat the world champions in a penalty shootout...sounds exciting.

 

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30 minutes ago, titchuk said:

Feels like there is a bit of revisionism to Spain because yeah that 2012 run was maybe a bit too controlled to be thrilling, but I seem to remember 2008 being fun and quite 'wow'?

Just looked it up and they were the top scorers, put 7 past Russia over 2 games, last minute winners in others, beat the world champions in a penalty shootout...sounds exciting.

 

You've also left out the 2010 world cup where they were very boring...

Also they were literally called boring at the time! But also lauded for just how effective they were

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Remember, Man City are also called boring. I'm sure it's an English thing, we never did understand possession football.

Football isn't exciting unless it's FULL FRONTAL NO HANDBRAKE SHOTS EVERY MINUTE SWASHBUCKLING HIGH IMPACT HIGH PRESS HIGH INTENSITY CARNAGE!! :mad:

 

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My tepid take is that there is some minor novelty at first, as with City and Guardiola, but after a while that wears off and you just see the same thing again.

Spain were dull but there was also an inevitability they'd win which is why 2014 was so funny

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5 minutes ago, InigoPatinkin said:

Spain where basically Barcelona without the genius of Messi, which is and continues to be sterile. 

They also benched both Torres and Villa in favor of more control.

In general, no big tournament winners played great football at all times and steamrolled the competition.

2022 - Argentina with all their flaws was arguably the most entertaining winner in a while.
2021 - Italy layed great for some periods, then had a lot of nothing happening for even longer periods.
2018 - France killed the competition with physicality and rigid football.
2016 - Portugal had more luck than good matches.
2014 - Germany was also boring and controlled other than Brazil's shambles in semi-final.
2012-2010-2008 Spain and the most controlling football ever.
2006 - Italy and their last stereotypical tournament win.
2004 - Greece with textbook counter-attacking football.
2002 - Brazil was also nothing spectacular. Ronaldinho's brilliance against England and barely beat Turkey 1-0 in semi-final. Final was a dull affair until Kahn's spill.
2000 - France and their golden goals. Maybe it's the nostalgia, but the most entertaining tournament overall.

No point in going down further because football changed too much. Nobody really amazed the neutrals.

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47 minutes ago, GunmaN1905 said:

2006 - Italy and their last stereotypical tournament win.

 

I've had no reason to deviate from my feeling that this England team are making their way through the tournament in a very Italian-esqe way.  In fact the timing and style of Watkins goal has all but cemented the idea in my mind.

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1 minute ago, EdBed said:

 

I've had no reason to deviate from my feeling that this England team are making their way through the tournament in a very Italian-esqe way.  In fact the timing and style of Watkins goal has all but cemented the idea in my mind.

I said it a few times, I've got nothing against this style of play if defense actually works.

I still don't think England's defense is actually good because you can't keep a clean sheet and every defensive transition is full on panic.

Add Pickford into the equation and attack has to win you games, not defense.

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4 minutes ago, GunmaN1905 said:

I said it a few times, I've got nothing against this style of play if defense actually works.

I still don't think England's defense is actually good because you can't keep a clean sheet and every defensive transition is full on panic.

Add Pickford into the equation and attack has to win you games, not defense.

They have been good at not conceeding more than 1 at least.

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Thats the difference between us and someone like that Spain. Our boring isnt actually well executed, there's not being a huge amount of clarity or dynamism either. Indeed our best performance, in that semi-final, came from when we actually stepped up the tempo after going behind, to the point the Netherlands switched formations to nullify us. We finally made proactive subs, and it paid off. Literally all peole were asking for.

 

This whole abuse thing is absolute nonsense. He and the squad have criticism from fans and pundits who just wanted England to do better. And despite many of the prickly replies, he's made changes here and there that have improved England. Almost like people had a point 

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10 minutes ago, EdBed said:

 

I've had no reason to deviate from my feeling that this England team are making their way through the tournament in a very Italian-esqe way.  In fact the timing and style of Watkins goal has all but cemented the idea in my mind.

We've not timed it as well as the Italians did match to match until the semi final. Thats the first time hes been really proactive when needed, and lifted tempo when needed. We'll need that and truck more on Sunday 

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Posted (edited)
39 minutes ago, themadsheep2001 said:

our best performance, in that semi-final, came from when we actually stepped up the tempo after going behind

I'm not sure you can say we were forced into a tempo change because we had gone behind.  We conceded after only seven minutes.  I think we were more aggressive from the off, and the Dutch just scored with pretty much their first counter attack.  No reason why we won't start the same way on Sunday. 

But if it is a faster tempo again... I just hope the extra day's rest doesn't swing it in Spain's favour as the game goes on.  You have to go back to WC2010 to find a WC/Euros where the winner had played in the later semi final on the second night.  The last six finals have all been won by the team that played first.  And if you include Women's WCs and Women's Euros... it's eleven finals in a row that have gone to the team that have had an extra 24 hours' preparation time. 

I don't know why this isn't talked about more... the odds of tossing a coing and getting 11 heads in a row is about 10,000 to 1 :D

Edited by Rob1981
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2 minutes ago, Rob1981 said:

I'm not sure you can say we were forced into a tempo change because we had gone behind.  We conceded after only seven minutes.  I think we were more aggressive from the off, and the Dutch just scored with pretty much their first counter attack.  No reason why we won't start the same way on Sunday. 

But if it is a faster tempo again... I just hope the extra day's rest doesn't swing it in Spain's favour as the game goes on.  You have to go back to WC2010 to find a WC/Euros where the winner had played in the later semi final on the second night.  The last six finals have all been won by the team that played first.  And if you include Women's WCs and Women's Euros... it's eleven finals in a row that have gone to the team that have had an extra 24 hours' preparation time. 

I don't know why this isn't talked about more... the odds of tossing a coing and getting 11 heads in a row is about 10,000 to 1 :D

image.png.0ac356fc8588cf6def4e64bb5fd8112f.png

 

Doesn't include Euros prior to 2020 because the 2nd semi-final was just two days rest, not the three they have for the list above and this final.

 

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Player for player lads... it's coming home

Simon < Pickford
Carvajal < Walker
Cucurella > Trippier
Laporte < Stones
Nacho < Guehli
Rodri > Rice
Ruiz > Mainoo
Yamal = Saka
Williams < Foden
Olmo < Bellingham
Morata < Kane

Right folks?

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5 minutes ago, Bootador said:

Player for player lads... it's coming home

Simon < Pickford
Carvajal < Walker
Cucurella > Trippier
Laporte < Stones
Nacho < Guehli
Rodri > Rice
Ruiz > Mainoo
Yamal = Saka
Williams < Foden
Olmo < Bellingham
Morata < Kane

Right folks?

Ooh, now do the managers

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, EdBed said:

Doesn't include Euros prior to 2020 because the 2nd semi-final was just two days rest, not the three they have for the list above and this final.

In a quiet moment I went right back through the history books on this...  Looking at Copa America and Asian Cup and AFCON as well... at least from the point that they started playing the SFs on different days to maximise TV monies:

image.png.0315aec40d9affa0a49e44147ff280d0.png

Also shows whether the semi-finalist had to play extra time or not.

Overall it's isn't that far off 50/50 if you go right back 30-40 years.  But it shifts noticeably over time.  Maybe fitness levels or something... I don't know.  But certainly in more recent times the team with the extra 24 hours' rest definitely looks more likely to win.

I was interested to hear Gareth mention the extra day's preparation time for Spain in an interview... almost as soon as he had come off the pitch after the SF it was already on his mind.  I still think that is one of the things that cost us in Euro 2020.  Of course people will point to the fact that we didn't attack Italy more and got the tactics wrong... but there were a few players that didn't really turn up that night and looked out of running either way.  Even if we had wanted to be aggressive I don't know that everyone had the legs for it.

But at least we didn't have to play ET against Netherlands in the end... that will obviously help.

Edited by Rob1981
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Not sure Italy had any fitness level advantage considering the final was their 3rd time going into extra time compared to England's 2nd, with England also having a comfortable stroll against Ukraine in the Q/F whilst Italy had favourites Belgium  

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My main takeaway from my less thorough review was that the difference may be felt when the game gets into ET and Pens.

I do think that the final being shifted a further day away from the semis, so the number of rest days is 4 and 3 rather than 3 and 2 like it used to be, reduces the disadvantage quite a lot.  I have often thought the difference between 2 days rest and 3 days is something that a Europa League competitor suffers from when playing in the Prem but a CL team does not.

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Just now, EdBed said:

My main takeaway from my less thorough review was that the difference may be felt when the game gets into ET and Pens.

I suppose I should have added that column to say whether the final went to ET or not.

As you say, the extra day's rest probably make more difference if the final isn't settled in 90 minutes.

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Think penalty shootouts should be removed from that tbh, unless there is evidence less rested teams are more frequently losing them?

Chile, Italy and Argentina make the left side look a fair bit greener

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6 minutes ago, The_jagster said:

Think penalty shootouts should be removed from that tbh, unless there is evidence less rested teams are more frequently losing them?

Dunno.  Maybe you could make the case that the team that has had the better of the game in ET has a slight advantage going into the penalties.  Either psychological, or because the other team is more tired because they have had to fight harder to stay in the game.  So then... maybe having extra rest beforehand and being less knackered at the end of 120 minutes still gives you an advantage.

It's hard to pull much data together on penalty shootouts because there haven't really been that many down the years... even these books on the "psychology" of penalties are based on pretty small sample sizes.  I think there have still only been about 30 shootouts in the whole history of the World Cup, for example.  And only three in finals where the timing of your semi final and energy levels could be something to look at.

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2 minutes ago, Haguey said:

As bad as Trippier has been (on his weaker side) I am simply not having this

If we talk strictly about performance in this tournament.

Simon > Pickford - neither are convincing, but Simon had more good saves.
Carvajal > Walker - Walker looks past it despite some good moments, Carvajal has been great.
Le Normand < Stones - Stones looked like he's not fully fit early one, but has grown into it and played great against Netherlands.
Laporte < Guehi - Guehi has been the biggest surprise and England fans can only be thankful Maguire got injured.
Cucurella > Trippier - Cucurella looks like a different player than at Chelsea (most of them do), Trippier has easily be the worst starter for England.
Rodri > Rice - If Spain wins, Rodri simply must win ballon. Rice is doing his job for the most part, but is nowhere near Rodri's level.
Fabian > Mainoo - Fabian has been amazing, Mainoo has been great considering the expectations, but again, nowhere near Fabian.
Olmo > Bellingham - Bellingham scored two, but hasn't done much other than that. Olmo has been great whenever he played.
Yamal < Saka - Saka has arguably been England's best player and the only one trying to make something happen during turgid phases.
Nico > Foden - Both incosistent with periods of disappearance, but Nico was less inconsistent.
Morata < Kane - I'm still going to give it to Kane just because even on his best day, Morata is useless.

Overall, England has way more untapped potential, I don't think anyone in Spain's starting lineup can play much better.

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