Southgate: Episode IV - A New Hope

[m_fenton]

We did go for a 2nd against Croatia - Harry Kane scores a tap in from about 2 bloody yards out and we'd have been well in control. Its exactly the sort of tiny margin that these sort of knockout games come down to.

[WillHoward42]

I think I said it before... if people are sat watching the way we played against Serbia and Denmark, and are happy... well crack on and enjoy it.

But there was nothing satisfying or enjoyable, with the way we played either of those two games. Certainly nothing to give us hope for being successful in this tournament either.

[Rob1981]

1 minute ago, WillHoward42 said:

if people are sat watching the way we played against Serbia and Denmark, and are happy... well crack on and enjoy it.

Literally nobody is saying they are happy   Believe me, if we go out with a whimper this time I will be as frustrated as anyone.  But it still won't justify this mad narrative that we have only ever played risk-averse football across four tournaments.  Southgate doesn't deserve to have his 2020 and 2022 results dismissed even more than they already are, even if he gets this one wrong.

[Dale0718]

Gallagher rumoured to be starting instead of Trent tomorrow. Would much rather try the Bellingham - Rice Midfield or try one of Mainoo or Wharton in there before the knockouts.

[JJ72]

Odds on a yellow card within 10 minutes?

[eenie]

What is the point of Gallagher?

[Barry Cartman]

7 minutes ago, eenie said:

What is the point of Gallagher?

Natural replacement for Phillips 

[PaulHartman71]

3 hours ago, m_fenton said:

We did go for a 2nd against Croatia - Harry Kane scores a tap in from about 2 bloody yards out and we'd have been well in control. Its exactly the sort of tiny margin that these sort of knockout games come down to.

People make out like we put 10 men behind the ball after going ahead against Croatia but it’s nonsense. 

There is also the famous chance where Sterling should have squared it for Kane at 1-0. 

[kopsy101]

I don't believe management will have been at all happy with the Denmark performance, I expect a massive change of attitude from the first whistle. 

England are the 2nd lowest pressers I believe, something I think they'll address in the next match. 

[eenie]

4 minutes ago, kopsy101 said:

I don't believe management will have been at all happy with the Denmark performance, I expect a massive change of attitude from the first whistle. 

England are the 2nd lowest pressers I believe, something I think they'll address in the next match. 

Second lowest in terms of chances created, too, iirc. Only beaten to number one spot by Scotland on that one  

Edited June 24 by eenie

[Bliss Seeker]

Would be really surprised if it's only one change tomorrow.  Trent's the obvious one, but those performances merit more than just placing the blame on Trent and hoping it fixes everything. 

Hoping the left side gets some sort of attention, either do the Bellingham - Rice midfield with Foden in the 10, or replace Foden for a more naturally suited left forward. 

It would be great if Gareth could show just a speck of trying to implement a defined system for the next game. Some sort of shape, promote something that looks cohesive. He's done it before so I have some confidence he's got it in him, but right now I'm just shades of: 

[TalkSport]

3 hours ago, Rob1981 said:

So what you're saying is... the Italy exit was frustrating but the France exit wasn't?

Like we'd evolved our style of play maybe... and over time we have become much more willing to attack teams  

We have clearly approached some big games very differently to others.  Become much more attacking than we were before... and we saw the benefit of this in WC2022 and more recently in the qualifiers against Italy.  So peddling this narrative that we have always stuck rigidly to pragmatic, boring football... it just isn't reality. 

It's far too early to predict what will happen this year.. yet the "same old Southgate!" stuff is already being written even though we are in a good place at the top of the group.

Should at least give it a few more days before everyone sticks the knives in

As for the 2020 final.  Of course it was extremely frustrating... but I actually don't think enough is made of the fact that Italy had had an extra day's rest. 

I thought I would be saving this stat for later in the tournament, but I might as well bring it out now: If you look at the last few World Cups, Euros, Women's World Cups, Women's Euros... the team that played their semi final 24 hours earlier has won ELEVEN consecutive tournaments.  I'm not sure why this isn't talked about more... it potentially creates unfairness in the format as soon as you want to put both semi finals in a prime time TV slot on consecutive days.  People were frustrated that we didn't go and attack Italy but there were a few players that night that didn't really turn up and were out of running by the second half... we would have struggled to play any other way for any sustained period of time.

fwiw I actually still think we would have won that 2020 final with Henderson playing in midfield.  More experience, someone to settle everyone and do the basics to keep hold of the ball when the game started to get away from us.  But Henderson hadn't started the earlier games because of coming back from injury.  And that's what I criticised Southgate for at the time... not being ruthless enough and being too "nice" to the Rice/Phillips combo that had got us to the final.  Team selection was a bigger issue for me than the fact that we didn't spend the entire second half raining shots in when several players were knackered.  AND we were still a penalty kick away from winning ffs, people talk like Italy pumped us 4-1 or something.

I don't know, maybe not leaving it till 120th min just to bring Sancho and Rashford on for pens, and not using them to attack Italy is something if energy was lacking.

[skybluedave]

I like Galalgher but if he's the answer, then god knows what the question is

[kopsy101]

If he's looking to press more, Gallagher makes sense IMO. The problem is, and we saw it against Denmark, is that he'd press and leave gaps which led to Denmark opportunities, and that's because he wasn't operating as part of a unit. I'm assuming that Southgate will have noticed this and asked others to move up when a player presses. 

[Rob1981]

18 minutes ago, TalkSport said:

I don't know, maybe not leaving it till 120th min just to bring Sancho and Rashford on for pens, and not using them to attack Italy is something if energy was lacking.

We had already brought Saka and Grealish on for Trippier and Mount.  These were attacking substitutions.  And we switched from a back five to a back four once Italy had got it back to 1-1 so that we could chase another goal.  Maybe he got it wrong.  But maybe if we'd sacrified another defensive player we would have lost 2-1 in extra time.  I don't know.  But we didn't just sit and dig in for the penalties, as much as people might like to remember it that way. 

[skybluedave]

That final was just like every other international final (well except Qatar one). Just cagey. Manager can try thing but I think the players are naturally more reserved and less risk adverse in these matches. 

[Craigus89]

I'd put money on the only change being Gallagher for Trent and everything else being the same. 

I have absolutely no reason to think things will look different after 4 tournaments of this style. 

Picking up on the post earlier about Portugal, the results honestly matter less to me than being excited by the spectacle. There is zero chance I will enjoy watching England while Southgate is in charge.

Edit to add: And this criticism takes nothing away from past achievements. Both can be true at the same time, criticising him doesn't automatically = negating past success. 

Edited June 24 by Craigus89

[Pukey]

Will be incredibly disappointing if Gallagher is the only change. Midfield definitely an issue that needs addressing, but that left side is not magically going to fix itself if you keep playing Trippier and Foden.

[Rob1981]

Some reports that Trippier might get rested and Konsa might come in. 

[arenaross]

29 minutes ago, Rob1981 said:

Some reports that Trippier might get rested and Konsa might come in. 

At left back?? 

[Jorg]

1 hour ago, Craigus89 said:

I'd put money on the only change being Gallagher for Trent and everything else being the same. 

I have absolutely no reason to think things will look different after 4 tournaments of this style. 

Picking up on the post earlier about Portugal, the results honestly matter less to me than being excited by the spectacle. There is zero chance I will enjoy watching England while Southgate is in charge.

Edit to add: And this criticism takes nothing away from past achievements. Both can be true at the same time, criticising him doesn't automatically = negating past success. 

I completely agree with this.  Southgate is by nature a cautious manager but that doesn't mean he hasn't done well in previous tournaments or managed games where England have been positive.  He has actually picked a really exciting squad but that is going to be absolutely pointless if he barely uses it.

He has probably just come to the end of the line with England and it will be interesting to see how they do tomorrow night.  It feels like they need more than just bringing Gallagher in.  The team is crying out for Gordon on the left.  Surely a midfield of 6.Rice, 8.Bellingham and 10.Foden is worth a go.  If it doesn't work have a plan to change it at HT.  Teams have 5 subs so there is huge scope to make impactful changes.

[TalkSport]

9 minutes ago, arenaross said:

At left back?? 

If that happens, then what's the point of calling up Gomez and not another LB?

Guehi to be moved left back for peak times.

[Rob1981]

14 minutes ago, arenaross said:

At left back?? 

You tell me.  He played at LB in one of the friendlies.

Trippier has a calf niggle apparently.  So if they want to rest him and if Shaw still can't play... you've basically got Konsa or Gomez that could fill in and both are still right footers.

[Heartwork]

This would be my set-up

Although of course Gareth wouldn't dare drop Foden. Wharton alongside Rice would allow Rice to get forward more with Wharton pulling strings in midfield. We know what Eze can do but he can easily be swapped out for Gordon or Palmer. Gomez is the only one aside from Tripper who can really play at LB if Shaw's not fully fit yet.

[TheWednesday]

Be a massive shame if Wharton doesn't get any game time this tournament coming off the back of such a great season.

[Heartwork]

1 minute ago, TheWednesday said:

Be a massive shame if Wharton doesn't get any game time this tournament coming off the back of such a great season.

Not to mention how much better England looked when he came on in the warm-up game he played in.

[Bootador]

I don't like Trippier at left back, but I don't think he's done anything wrong to warrant getting dropped for another right-footed left back (unless you're putting Trent there, or Walker to allow Trent to go RB, neither of which will happen ofc)

 

[Bootador]

Trippier being "rested" is absolutely terrifying - sounds almost an acknowledgment of "nah, Shaw has no chance"

[Bootador]

I'd 100% play Trent at RB tomorrow. Even if he's not first choice for the knockouts there, if we're not even considering as an attacking sub it's criminal. Give him some minutes there for cohesion.

Gallagher.... well it was always going to happen. I don't like him, but I also presume he's better at Trent in terms of showing for Rice when the latter is on the ball. If the defence of Rice is "well, of course he can't pass forwards, he's not that kind of guy - he needs help" then we do need the other midfielder to play a big role in that.

Or just play Wharton and move Rice forward...

[Bootador]

I think they took him to be @Gizzy and run the Werewolf games, nothing more.

[Bliss Seeker]

Gallagher might have a Hargreaves energiser bunny 2006 WC in him. 

He probably doesn't, but imagine if he did!? 

[Bliss Seeker]

Don't mind Gallagher, he may not be the most gifted but he covers more ground than anyone in the premiership (think that's statistically true?). 

If it helps balance that midfield, I don't care if we brought back David Batty from his self imposed exile in Alaska, or whatever, as long as they stop looking like they've just met at a mutual Facebook friend's stag do. 

[craigcwwe]

I'd have rested Trippier for the game tomorrow night anyway but having seen the talk about him having an injury niggle then yeah, he's most liking not going to be playing. Got to utilise the squad as well tbf. I'd also rest Walker and put Trent at RB, this will probably happen with Gallgher coming in at CM. Most likely the only two changes to the 11. 

 

[Baptista_8]

'If we're more aggressive, the attacking play will come' Christ - it's the balance that needs addressing.

[EdBed]

We've qualified! Whoop!

It's coming home.

[Barry Cartman]

3 cheers for Zaccagini

 

 

[Baptista_8]

Only change and it's not one that will help us with control 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

[craigcwwe]

Pretty sure Soutgate was complaining after the Denmark game that the players are tired as well. Maybe use the squad a bit more?

[The Amazing Dale Watkins]

1 hour ago, Barry Cartman said:

3 cheers for Zaccagini

Zaccagini has nothing to do with it. Cheer for Ferran Torres if you must raise your glass.

[The Amazing Dale Watkins]

German commentators are pretty cocky about the prospect that we might face England, but I think that's misplaced confidence. I'd much rather play Denmark, Serbia, or Slovenia because they're already playing their best, whereas England should be expected to raise their game against stronger competition. So 'mon England tomorrow!

[Rob1981]

Updated probability-of-each-opponent matrix:

Most likely opponents are now Austria, Turkey and Czech Republic if we win the group.

[Lucas]

On that note, Austria the last team I’d want to face. 

[EdBed]

6 hours ago, Rob1981 said:

Updated probability-of-each-opponent matrix:

Most likely opponents are now Austria, Turkey and Czech Republic if we win the group.

0% chance of England finishing outside the top 2? (I must be reading this wrong)

[Rob1981]

1 hour ago, EdBed said:

0% chance of England finishing outside the top 2? (I must be reading this wrong)

Yeah, we could get squeezed down to 3rd if we lose to Slovenia and Denmark also beat Serbia.

So that’s why there’s still a 2% chance of us playing Portugal. That can only happen if F1 v C3 comes out because we already know Portugal are F1. But England would need to drop to third, plus the 3rd place teams would need to come from CDEF in order to put C3 against F1 and not E1.

But also, because we COULD still drop to third then some of those other matchups could still happen in two different ways. Like England playing Romania, Ukraine, Slovakia or Belgium could be C1 v E3 OR it could be E1 v C3.

[Rob1981]

6 hours ago, Lucas said:

On that note, Austria the last team I’d want to face. 

This was the modelling I posted in last night's match thread:

So to avoid C1 v D3 which COULD be England v Austria or even England v Netherlands/France...

We need to avoid that top scenario where ACDE provide the third place teams.

But an England win tonight reduces the chance of this happening, as well as shoring up our position as the group winner at the same time.

[m_fenton]

We're not playing great, but not "worried about playing Austria" levels yet ffs.

[Gizmo7]

Yeah a route of Austria in the L16 then Switzerland/Italy in the quarters does seem pretty favourable in comparison. Its knockout football with serious teams, long gone are the Albanias and Scotlands of the tournament.

[RTHerringbone]

I think we'll make hard work of whomever we play from hereon in, which is why I think it's imperative that if we have injury doubts (Trippier, maybe Saka) or selection question marks (TAA, Foden), then today is the day to make changes.

I'd go all in: Gomez for Trippier, Wharton / Mainoo / Gallagher (in that order) for TAA, Palmer for Saka and Gordon for Foden. **** it, I'd maybe give Kane a breather and start with Watkins.

What we'll actually get is Gallagher for TAA, and he'll get a yellow card in the first 30 minutes and be ruled out of the next game, rendering his selection today an irrelevance.

[Gizmo7]

Jack Wilshere 🥲

Although I don’t remember us being that fluid and quick-tempo’d in 2015

[TalkSport]

1 hour ago, RTHerringbone said:

What we'll actually get is Gallagher for TAA, and he'll get a yellow card in the first 30 minutes and be ruled out of the next game, rendering his selection today an irrelevance.

Forgot about this, but this is totally happening