Yesterday I got a question from a user with regards to which methods to use to fill the history for his competitions. As history is obvious a major component of the Historical Divergence Project (it's in the name ), I thought it would be an interesting piece to share. I have to add here that his historical setup has a lot more depth than the national histories I have written down, and depth is always a bonus. The question came down to whether to use the existing results and use a mathematical formule, or completely simulate each match in a fictitious way using weights, odds and a number generator.
Below is my answer to that, as I had already been dabbling a bit into testing my methods.
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That's a good question. I have been using several systems to determine those outcomes for both Iron Curtain and as a tryout for the Historical Divergence.
I usually start with historical results as they give a sense of strength for each region. When the timelines change that is an issue though.
So for a test on the Frisia nation I combined the Dutch, Belgian and French results (Belgian and French only the applicable areas) and used the Dutch competition style for the determination of the results. The Dutch competition played in separate districts until the 50s and with those Belgian and French areas added, that likely still would have been like that. Also, Belgium played in two separate districts for a while and the French area isn't that big, so using this worked out very well.
When I was looking at Nahua, I ended up with a timegap of several decades between the start of competitive football in Mexico and my historical start. That's where I had to work out which tournament and tournament style bridges that gap. Added to that, I also needed to work out which teams bridge that gap. I am still working out the gap exactly, but I can make use of the history as well. My own Nahia history mentions that football tournaments were played where the Mexican war of independence wasn't going on and you would expect teams from the quieter regions to be stronger. To find those regions I can just take the historical account and map out the movements and activity according to that. In your cases, since your history has been worked out quite deeply already, I would say that it might have some impact on cities having more inhabitants which makes them possible stronger (more local talent) and you can give each team a weighted value based on variables (inhabitants, economics, area, etc) and use the number generator. It's an interesting idea actually. I am not sure I will need it (although I used a compensation factor in the Frisian history test to make for some more interesting outcomes, penalties and bonuses for teams).
So while I have no straight answer for you, I think football history (if available) and regional history should be able to help, especially considering your more in depth approach.
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Obviously this method is only going to work when you can reuse existing results. So resetting club football history both national and international will be easier than resetting the history for say the Copa America where there is suddenly an influx of nations that previously weren't there or where you have work out how to combine the Gold Cup (played each two years) and the Copa America (played eacher four years).